Table 4. Contribution of the transient effect on the 30-year earthquake probabilities for a Weibull distribution

Fault   Transient Effect   Transient + Permanent   Ratio
    Only (%)   Effect (%)   (Transient / Total)
Arima-Takatsuki TL   4.94   9.58   0.52
(East Section)   (3.82-6.19)   (7.07-12.52)   (0.45-0.59)
             
Arima-Takatsuki TL   0.028   0.019   1.44
(West Section)   (0.0005-0.17)   (0.0003-0.11)   (1.33-1.62)
             
Median Tectonic Line   12.26   12.42   0.99
(Tokushima Section)   (11.63-13.45)   (11.73-13.68)   (0.98-0.99)
             
Median Tectonic Line   1.22   1.08   1.12
(Naruto Section)   (0.09-3.60)   (0.08-3.33)   (1.07-1.19)
             
Median Tectonic Line   6.68   6.76   0.99
(Wakayama Section)   (6.00-7.27)   (6.07-7.35)   (0.986-0.992)
             
Yamasaki fault   2.86   2.94   0.98
    (2.72-3.16)   (2.78-3.27)   (0.97-0.98)
             
Yamasaki fault   1.43   1.28   1.10
(Branch fault)   (0.76-1.85)   (0.69-1.71)   (1.07-1.14)
             
Hanaore fault   2.55   2.56   1.00
    (2.52-2.60)   (2.51-2.63)   (0.99-1.00)
             
Uemachi fault   1.76   1.64   1.07
    (1.25-2.19)   (1.12-2.08)   (1.03-1.12)
             
Ikoma fault   1.96   1.87   1.05
    (1.54-2.28)   (1.43-2.21)   (1.02-1.08)
             

These results are calculated using the same data and assumptions as in Table 2.