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Northern California Earthquake Potential

Abstract and Introduction

Methodology

Fault Zones
San Andreas and San Gregorio fault subsystem
Hayward fault subsystem
Calaveras fault system
North Coast
Great Valley thrust faults
Minor faults in the San Andreas system
Northeastern California

Discussion and Conclusions

Appendix: Fault Zone Database

Acknowledgments and Reference

Figures and Tables

North Coast

The North Coast for the following discussion includes the Hayward and Calaveras fault subsystems that lie north of the metropolitan San Francisco Bay region (Figure 8: segments: H4, H5, H6, H7, C5, C6, C7, and C8). In general, the Holocene fault traces in this region are rather poorly known, hence the continuity of microseismicity and locations of ongoing fault creep are especially important in locating and characterizing active traces. No major historical earthquakes have been associated with specific North Coast fault segments, nor has paleoseismologic evidence yet clarified any characteristic behaviors of these faults.

Hayward fault subsystem, North Coast

The Maacama fault (H4, H5, H6) to the north has a sizable creep rate, ~7 mm/yr at Willits (on H5) and Ukiah (on H6) (see Table A-1 and Figure 8, below). This large creep rate makes plausible our assumption that the 9 mm/yr long-term slip rate adopted for the Hayward and Rodgers Creek fault continues northward along the Maacama fault zone. As we discuss later, the observed geodetic strain rate and current global plate rate analysis support extending such a rate into the Garberville-Briceland segment (H7). The slip per event, ~2 m, that we adopted for the Hayward and Rodgers Creek, based on historic and paleoseismic data, is larger than the values expected for the lengths of these North Coast segments using our standard methodology. Hence, we continue to assume ~2 m slip per event for the North Coast segments: H4, H5, H6, and H7. Although the segment boundary from H5 to H6 is rather subtle, we felt that short segments were more comparable to the creeping Hayward fault (H1 and H2) which appears to show some segmentation despite being an unusually straight and simple fault.

Click for high-resolution image
Figure 8: Image, 60k
Figure 8. North Coast seismicity (upper map, USGS catalog, 1968-1985) and creep localities (lower map). Rectangular area near Geysers (near L08) has seismicity deleted. Creep localities and geodetic sites marked by large triangles for alinement arrays and by small triangles with vectors for USGS trilateration stations and velocity analysis of M. H. Murray (unpub. data, 1996). Velocity vectors (arrows) indicate net right-lateral from P (Poonkinney) to Covelo of 8.3 mm/yr (1985-1989). See Figure 2a for location map of segments: C5, C6, C7, C8, H4, H5, H6 and H7

Calaveras fault subsystem, North Coast

The map location of the Holocene fault traces is especially uncertain for this fault subsystem in the North Coast region. The terrain is steep, landslides and vegetational cover are extensive, thus making difficult the usual procedures for delineating active faults, especially the geomorphic interpretation of aerial photography. Segmentation relied on weighted judgment based on the ages of various mapped Quaternary fault traces of Jennings [1992] and the density of microseismic activity. Creep is recognized on all segments of the Calaveras fault subsystem in the San Francisco Bay area, so we expect it may continue into the North Coast but few data are available to test this assumption. On Figure 8 (lower), two velocity vectors straddle the Round Valley fault (C7), indicating creep of ~8 mm/yr, 1985-1989. Although the 5-6 yr duration of the survey is too brief to be highly exact, this demonstration of a sizable creep rate so near its north end may have important implications for the Calaveras fault subsystem as a whole. At least we may reasonably extend further northward our assumption of 6 mm/yr long-term slip rate with some greater assurance, but with some additional concern that it might be a low estimate.
Great Valley thrust faults >